Morocco’s Q4 2026 Economic Growth Forecast Set at 4.7%

Overview

Morocco’s economic activity is projected to expand by 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2026, provided that energy prices stay stable and no significant new shocks occur, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP). As one of the largest economies in North Africa, Morocco’s performance influences regional trends.

Drivers from extractive industries

The HCP attributes this outlook to the gradual recovery of extractive industries and related sectors, noting that maintenance work carried out in the second and third quarters is concluding and that exports are realigning with a new cycle of fertilizer stock replenishment in Latin American and African countries.

Agriculture and services contribution

Growth continues to be driven mainly by agriculture and services, which together are expected to contribute about four percentage points to the fourth‑quarter expansion, the HCP added.

Domestic demand and investment

Domestic demand will remain a pillar of growth through the end of 2026. Household consumption is forecast to rise by 4.3 percent year‑on‑year in Q4‑2026, supported by continued attractive bank financing conditions and the renewal of fiscal measures designed to curb energy‑related inflation.

Investment is also anticipated to increase by 6.8 percent, driven by major infrastructure projects.