Saudi output jumps as OPEC lifts 2027 demand forecast and cuts 2026 outlook

OPEC revises global demand outlook

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.55 million barrels per day, up from the previous estimate of 2.36 million barrels per day, saying the increase is needed to replenish inventories drained by the repercussions of the war with Iran.

The movement underscores Saudi Arabia’s influence on oil markets across the Arab world.

In the same monthly report released on Tuesday, OPEC lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 for the sixth consecutive time, indicating a more cautious outlook for the current year.

Saudi output jumps while Russian production falls

Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its crude oil production reached 8.372 million barrels per day in September, up from 6.238 million barrels per day in August, a rise of more than two million barrels per day.

In contrast, Russian crude output fell by 38,000 barrels per day in September to 8.643 million barrels per day, according to OPEC data reviewed by Reuters, amid continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow would slightly reduce its oil production this year, and Russia’s Economy Ministry has cut its 2026 production forecast to its lowest level in 17 years, blaming the war with Ukraine.

Kazakhstan adds to regional supply

Kazakhstan’s oil production grew by 22,000 barrels per day in September compared with the previous month, reaching 1.851 million barrels per day, the OPEC report showed.

The latest projections highlight differing outlooks, with OPEC anticipating stronger demand growth in 2027 while revising down its expectations for 2026.